H-1B Cap Lottery Calculator
Estimates under the wage-level weighted selection process. Not legal advice.
Wage level distribution
Drag the slice edges to adjust.
*Default distribution of H‑1B registrations at each wage level, based on FY2025's lottery data.
Registration volume
Drag the bar height to adjust.
*Default assumed FY2026 lottery registration volume set at 75% of FY2025 volume. The proposed $100,000 consular fee is expected to reduce registration volume.
Probability of selection by wage level
Select job title, state, and county above to see location-specific salary bands and odds.
| Wage level | Yearly salary | Selection odds | Lottery tickets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Level 1 | — | — | 1 ticket |
| Level 2 | — | — | 2 tickets |
| Level 3 | — | — | 3 tickets |
| Level 4 | — | — | 4 tickets |
How we calculate selection odds
This section explains, step by step, how the calculator turns the settings you choose above into the selection odds shown in the table.
We use three inputs you control:
- Registration volume (how many total lottery registrations we assume).
- Wage-level distribution (what share of registrations are at Levels 1–4).
- U.S. master's or higher (whether a specific beneficiary gets the extra master's draw).
Step 1 – Turn inputs into tickets
First, we estimate how many registrations you're competing against and how many tickets each wage level gets.
Total regs = 257,250 → L1: 102,900, L2: 108,045, L3: 28,298, L4: 18,007.Total tickets = (L1×1)+(L2×2)+(L3×3)+(L4×4) = 475,912.
Higher wage levels get more tickets per registration, which is why their selection odds are larger in the table above.
The calculator then applies one of two formulas depending on whether you answered Yes or No to the U.S. master's degree setting.
Step 2 – Two draws (when U.S. master's = Yes)
With a U.S. master's or higher, you get up to two chances: first in the regular-cap draw, then (if not selected) again in the master's-cap draw.
Regular pool: all tickets = 475,912 · fr = 91,873 ÷ 475,912 ≈ 19.305% · Master's pool size ≈ 46% of tickets = 218,920 · fm = 28,268 ÷ 218,920 ≈ 12.913%
P(selected with w tickets) = P(win R1) + P(lose R1) × P(win R2) = (1 − (1−fr)w) + (1−fr)w × (1 − (1−fm)w)
Here fr is the per-ticket chance in the regular-cap draw (R1), and fm is the per-ticket chance in the master's-cap draw (R2).
Step 3 – Single draw (when U.S. master's = No)
Without a U.S. master's, all tickets go into a single pool and there is only one draw.
Per-ticket chance f =120,141 ÷ 475,912 ≈ 25.244%
P(selected with w tickets) = 1 − (1−f)w
Key assumption
We assume approximately 46% of all tickets in the system come from registrations with a U.S. master's degree or higher. This share determines how big the master's-cap pool is relative to the regular-cap pool.
The overall scale is based on roughly 120,141 selections needed to fill the H‑1B cap.